Latest data shared by the World Meteorological Organization (Wmo) Indicates a probability of 55% that sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific will cool at the Niña levels from September to November.
About 90% of the excess heat of global warming is stored in the oceanMake the ocean heat content a critical indicator of climate change.
“For October to December 2025, the probability that Niña’s conditions increased slightly to around 60%. There is little chance that El Niño will develop from September to December ”. WMO said in an update.
According to the United Nations agency, there is a smaller chance (45%) that the Pacific temperatures will remain as they have done in the past six months, when neither the Niña cooling nor its opposite number, heating El Niño, has caused unusual peaks or dips in sea surface temperatures.
Rescue insight
Forecasts from the United Nations Agency for the oscillation phenomenon in the south of El Niño “Save thousands of lives when used to guide the preparation and response actions,” insisted OMM secretary general, Celeste Saulo.
Information could also result in millions of dollars in savings in agriculture, energy, health and transport, she said.
Important because the Niña and El Niño are to shape our climate by modifying the temperatures of the surface of the ocean and in an impact on the changes in the winds, the pressure and the precipitation diagrams, Climate change induces by humans “always increases global temperatures, exacerbates extreme weather conditions and affects seasonal precipitation and temperature models”Noted WMO.
Each year of the last decade has been the hottest top 10 ever recorded, The United Nations agency warned earlier this yearWith 2024 the hottest to date, with “exceptional temperatures of land and sea surface and ocean heat”.
Citing six international data sets, WMO said that the global average surface temperature was 1.55 ° C (34.79F) above the average of 1850-1900.
“The flamboyant temperatures in 2024 require a climate action at Trail in 2025″, ” said UN secretary general Antóno Guterres at the time. “There is still time to avoid the worst of the climate disaster. But leaders must act-now, “he insisted.
The other key climate phenomena that influence global temperature include the oscillation of the North Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation and the Dipole of the Indian Ocean. Their impact on surface temperatures and precipitation is monitored by omo and published in regular World updates on seasonal climate (GSCU).
The last update Indicates that for September to November, temperatures should be higher than normal in a large part of the northern hemisphere and large parts of the southern hemisphere.
Precipitation predictions should be similar to those generally observed during a moderate Niña, noted the WMO assessment.
Publicado anteriormente en Almouwatin.
